In the first public statewide poll to ask about this year’s New Jersey Senate race with named candidates, Representative Andy Kim, the presumptive Democratic nominee, leads either of the two leading Republican challengers by a nine-point margin, 48 percent to 39 percent among registered voters who say that they plan to vote in November.
But according to the latest results from the Fairleigh Dickinson University Poll, that lead is cut almost in half when incumbent Senator Bob Menendez is included as an option.
“Right now, this race isn’t close enough for Menendez to serve as a spoiler,” said Dan Cassino, a professor of Government and Politics at FDU, and the director of the poll. “But if he’s on the ballot, the race gets a lot more interesting.”
Last month, Senator Menendez announced that he will not seek the Democratic nomination for Senate but has said that he may run in the general election as an independent.
When the Menendez is included in the list of candidates, he has the support of six percent of voters, drawn mostly, but not exclusively, from voters who would otherwise go to the Kim.
Menendez’s support comes largely from Black and Hispanic voters, and includes many voters who say that they don’t know who they would vote for if Menendez is not included, as well as Republicans who say that they would vote for Kim if Menendez were not on the ballot.
The net effect of Menendez being included on the ballot is a decrease in Kim’s margin over either of the Republican candidates, from nine points (48 to 39) with 14 percent undecided to five points (44 to 39) with 11 percent undecided.
“Despite all of his legal problems, Menendez still has a base, and if he’s on the ballot, that base is going to come out for him,” said Cassino. “He’s not going to win, but he might be able to make things uncomfortable for Democrats.”
The poll also looked at differences in support for the two leading Republican contenders for the nomination. Respondents in the poll were randomly assigned to be asked about one of the two leading candidates, Mendham Borough Mayor Christine Serrano Glassner or Real Estate Developer Curtis Bashaw.
In terms of overall support, both Republican candidates perform almost identically against Kim in the general election, garnering 38 or 39 percent of the vote regardless of who is named, and whether or not Menendez is included as an option.
“Neither Glassner nor Bashaw have much in the way of statewide name recognition yet,” said Cassino. “So it’s not surprising that we’re not seeing a big difference between them.”
However, there are some substantial differences in the geographic base of the two Republicans. Glassner, the Mayor of Mendham Borough, does better in the northeast part of the state and the adjacent parts of the urban core counties than Bashaw, while Bashaw, who hails from Cape May County, does better in the coast counties and in the southern part of the state.