Households that primarily heat with heating oil – most of them in the Northeast – are expected to pay about 21% more for fuel this winter than last winter, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s 2026-27 Winter Fuels Outlook.

The projected increase is driven by heating oil prices forecast to average more than 30% higher than last winter, as tight distillate markets keep costs elevated. East Coast distillate inventories were 32% below their five-year seasonal average in September and are forecast to remain 20% to 30% below average through the winter.

By contrast, households that primarily heat with natural gas or propane – about half of U.S. households – are expected to spend less on energy this winter, with relatively high natural gas inventories providing a cushion for heating demand. Homes heating with electricity are expected to spend slightly more.

The EIA forecasts national winter temperatures to be about the same as last winter and the previous 10-winter average, though a strong El Niño could lead to different outcomes.

The same report notes Brent crude oil averaged $114 per barrel in September, $23 higher than in August, while U.S. retail gasoline averaged $4.35 a gallon and diesel topped $6 a gallon.