Recent Polls, Biden Debate Debacle, Suggest New Jersey May be a Battleground State for the 2024 Presidential Election

Although New Jersey has not voted to send a Republican to the White House since George H.W. Bush won the state in 1988, recent events have suggested that state’s 14 electoral votes may be in play for the 2024 presidential election.

Recent polls, President Biden’s disastrous debate performance and enthusiasm in at least parts of the state for a second Trump term in the Oval Office have led to speculation that Democrats may not be able to take the Garden State for granted in the upcoming election.

A poll released last week shows Trump leading Biden in New Jersey with 41% versus Biden’s 40%, with 13% saying they are undecided and 7% supporting independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or another third party candidate.

The poll, which was conducted by co/Efficient, was conducted from June 26 to 27 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.42%.

“President Trump had a dominant debate performance. … Joe Biden, on the other hand, is weak, failed, and dishonest, and Democrats are dumpster fire. This stark contrast is why President Trump [is] dominating in every battleground state, and longtime blue states such as Minnesota, Virginia, New Hampshire, and New Jersey are now in play,” Trump campaign spokesperson Danielle Alvarez said in a statement.

At a rally attended by tens of thousands of supporters in Wildwood, New Jersey earlier this year, Trump pledged to win the state.

“We’re going to officially play in the state of New Jersey. We’re going to win New Jersey,” he told the roaring crowd.

Speaking with CBS News, New Jersey Rep. Andy Kim, a Democrat who is running to replace incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Menendez in November, said “If President Trump wants to waste money in New Jersey, that’s on him. But I know the energy in my state — the people want something different and they’re absolutely exhausted by what Trump represents.”

In 2020, Biden beat Trump by 16 points in New Jersey – an increase from Trump’s 14-point margin loss in the state in 2016 to Hillary Clinton.

But in a fundraising  email to supporters following the debate, The New Jersey Republican Party insisted the “state is in play” and noted they “are in this to win it.”

“We are working day in and day out to reach every single voter in New Jersey and spread the word that we are in this to win it!,” the email said.

However, most independent election forecasters still believe Biden will ultimately win the state, with The Hill/Decision Desk prediction model giving him a 90% chance of victory, down slightly from the 96% chance it gave him in early June.

But while the fate of the race is uncertain, what is almost certain is that Trump will dominate in Lakewood.

In 2020, then President Trump trounced Biden by 65 points in Lakewood, receiving 82% of the vote, his largest margin of any municipality in the state.

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2 COMMENTS

  1. Recent Polls, Biden Debate Debacle, Suggest America Will Be A Battleground Country and Swing Nation In This Year’s Presidential Election
    “Recent polls and the President’s disastrous debate performance are telltale signs that the United States of America will be a battleground country and a swing nation in this year’s presidential election”, said political analyst, Steven Oyskuk.
    “All across the globe, the President’s numbers are incredibly strong,” Mr. Oyskuk noted. “In countries like China and Iran, Mr. Biden clobbers Mr. Trump in terms of popularity and poll numbers. But, right here, in America, voters have still not made up their minds whether they prefer to pay 20% more for their grocery bills – which is why, unlike the rest of the countries of the world – where Biden is clearly the preferred candidate of choice – the United States has morphed into a battleground country in this year’s presidential election, where Americans will have to ultimately decide whether they enjoy spending a lot more moolah for the products they need.”
    Mr. Oyskuk surmised that, “Both candidates will have no choice but to make campaign stops in every nook and cranny of this remarkable battleground and swing country of ours.”

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