With Trump leading in delegates, and Cruz in second, it seems clear who the frontrunners are. Despite this, the establishment in the GOP and political class is relishing the opportunity for a contested convention. In fact John Kasich a candidate who has only won his home state has called the prospect of a contested convention “exciting”. A brokered convention which involved a coronation of Kasich or an establishment pick could very well cause the GOP to lose in a general election.
Despite tremendous opposition to the notion of a brokered convention a contested and a brokered convention are not the same thing. According to reporter Gregory Krieg “if no candidate finishes the primary season with majority of delegates , the summer convention can be described as contested”. A brokered convention is where there are negotiations between delegates and that would send a bad signal to voters who overwhelmingly have delivered victories to Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. Any back room deals would potentially alienate a tremendous amount of voters.
Its clear to everyone that mathematically no one besides Donald Trump or Ted Cruz can claim the mantle of momentum. While a contested convention in and of itself would be bad enough in the eyes of many rank and file conservative republicans a brokered convention would be a disaster for the GOP. As Ted Cruz has said in the past a brokered convention would cause a revolt, he also said in a recent town hall that a “contested convention is different.” According to Cruz “Reagan and Ford battled it out at a contested convention. That’s what conventions are for.”
Donald Trump as of now is opposed to any non standard conventions. In fact in the past he has said “I think you’d have riots”. Mr Trump knows that a brokered convention in particular would likely not benefit him. Furthermore he has brought many new voters into the process and back room deals at a brokered convention would potentiality lead to many of them being disfranchised. He is categorically in favor of the candidate with the highest amount of delegates and states receiving the nomination.
While a brokered convention could be potentially educational there is no basis to nominate anyone other then the two top tier candidates. A brokered convention could send a signal to the conservative base that their concerns are being dismissed. This election has clearly been a repudiation of the establishment. Any back room deals at a brokered convention would be seen as totally disregarding the will of the voters. If the establishment wants to defeat Clinton they cannot run a campaign like they really want to defeat their very own voter base.
On the contrary, the purpose of this process is to ensure that the Republican hierarchy present at the convention will nominate the strongest candidate capable of winning the overall election, when there is no candidate strong enough in the primary to win the Republican nomination. The process usually builds enough support prior to the convention for a candidate to gain enough popularity to be the clear front-runner and have a good chance of having the overwhelming majority backing such candidate in the general election, with the additional hope of winning undecided voters and some from the opposing party. Neither Trump nor Cruz appear to have enough support from the general Republican voting citizens to back them in a general election. Although they each have more than Kasich, they have too many people that will not vote for them in their own party. Kasich has a better chance to win the support as nominee in the general election from both Trump and Cruz voters, even if he is not the candidate of first choice to such voters. He generally represents the Republican party ideology and has not been alienating potential voters in the primary process.
Trump is collapsing. The convention will pick a more electable ticket- Cruz/Kasich
On the contrary, #1. Your bias is showing that you prefer speculation over concrete evidence. The nominee should be appointed by the hierarchy “they” “believe” to be the strongest candidate? Who decides this? By what standards? Based on how much of a guess??
No need to have a few insiders guess for the entire country. The primaries and caucuses are the democratic way. Oligarchy’s are no longer welcome in the American political process.
The strongest candidates are obviously determined by the results of primaries and caucuses. Whether our candidate wins or not, it is easier to accept the results when there is no suspicion of corruption or “insider trading”.
One vote for one person, and the one with the greatest number wins!