NJ Transit Expects Ridership To Decline After Large Fare Increase

nj transit apLike so many other New Jersey commuters, Gary Johnson has learned to adapt. When gas prices hit $4 a gallon two years back, he began taking NJ Transit. Now that commuter train and bus fares are jumping 25 percent beginning May 1, Johnson, of Newark, may hop back in his car. He is among 5 percent of NJ Transit riders who officials expect will seek alternatives once the fare hike — tied for the largest in NJ Transit history — takes effect. In transit-speak, they are known as the “diversion,” the percentage of people a system loses for every percentage it hikes fares.  

NJ Transit executive director Jim Weinstein said the projected ridership decline was based on transportation studies following fare hikes in New Jersey and elsewhere in America.

But he also said he won’t know until after May 1 what taking 5 percent of people off trains and buses and potentially putting them into cars will mean for already choked interstates in the most congested state in America.

New Jersey Sierra Club director Jeff Tittel said the ridership decrease will put more cars on the road and, consequently, more pollution. He also predicted New Jersey would lose federal transportation dollars for being out of compliance with the Clean Air Act. 

“The more you cut services and raise fares, the less people take transit — so the more you have cut, creating a downward spiral,” Tittel said. “Each train eliminates about 500 cars on our roads. These cuts will add to traffic sprawl and pollution.”

 

Weinstein predicted the ridership drop would be temporary and the move would not send NJ Transit into a “negative spiral.”

“It’s not dissimilar to what happens on a toll road when there’s a toll increase,” he said. “People stop using it. Eventually they come back. We believe that’s what will happen with the transit system.”

The fare increase was passed Wednesday by NJ Transit’s board of directors to help plug a $300 million budget hole the agency faces for the fiscal year beginning July 1.

On average, fares will increase 22 percent, tying the record hike of 1981. Riders of light rail and shorter local bus trips, meanwhile, will pay 10 percent more.

The increases will be particularly jarring for off-peak customers. An off-peak round trip ticket from Rahway to New York, for example, will go from $12.25 to $17.50, a nearly 43 percent jump.

Off-peak rail round-trip discounts will not be sold after April 30. They will no longer be accepted after May 23. Thirty-two trains also will be dropped.

Departing NJ Transit board member Kenneth Pringle said the agency is at a “watershed moment.” He is concerned riders will lose confidence in the system unless a long-term solution is found to fund mass transportation in New Jersey.

“If people think that their service may be cut or a large increase is going to come at some unexpected time and they are going to have very little time to adapt, then I think people will stop basing some of their decisions. Star Ledger

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