We have all heard about the recent increase in coronavirus cases in the Lakewood community. Thankfully, there has not been an accompanying surge in serious cases. This has lead to differing interpretations. Some believe that the virus is less deadly than it was while others fear that this is merely the quiet before the storm. I would like to examine part of this question.
First off, it should be said that this is a fluid situation (to say the least!) and that it behooves us to be willing to change our actions as the situation calls for. There is nothing inherently contradictory about wanting/not wanting to wear a mask at one point in time and doing the opposite at another. Different situations call for different responses—we should all feel free to analyze the situation as it currently stands and respond appropriately without worrying about what we’ve argued for and against in the past. If others take it as hypocrisy or an admission of wrongness, they are incorrect.
Now, for the current situation. In short, after a long time of having a very low caseload, we are now seeing a growing number of cases. This is not surprising: we are testing more often and we haven’t been keeping to the strict standards of social distancing that had once been the norm. While the tests are not perfect (and this constitutes a good reason not to trust results completely on a population-wide level), the PCR test is very good at identifying true positives and not mistaking negatives as positives (i.e., it has high specificity). As such, the case increase is not really subject to doubt—the tests say it is true, and there isn’t really any reason to doubt it. It makes sense.
Where we go from here is impossible to know. Nevertheless, we must prognosticate in order to meet the demands of our daily lives. Recently, TLS published a letter from the local doctors saying that after studying the genetics of the current cases, we are not seeing a different, less dangerous strain than we saw back in March and April.
Despite this, whatever the cause, we aren’t seeing the serious cases we used to see. Even if it is the same strain, something must have changed. Indeed, many things may have: many people already got it, people are being—somewhat—more careful than they were, we are catching cases earlier and quarantining, etc. These may very well be the cause of the current lower mortality, but it is necessary to realize that this is the normal course for this disease. In other words, while any and all of the above may be true (and hopefully is!), there is no reason to particularly think so based off the current situation. Even if the disease were to run the exact same course, we wouldn’t be seeing disturbing increases in deaths yet.
Why is this case? When examining new screening methods, scientists are careful to avoid something called length-time bias. Length-time bias is the impression of effectiveness created by the new tool catching a disease process that is asymptomatic/less dangerous more often than would otherwise have been found. For example, those who undergo a certain new method of cancer screening can appear to have better outcomes (longer survival, for example) merely due to the fact that many cancers that would never have been found otherwise (due to their non-malignant nature or slow growth) are found with the new screen. In the same way, increased testing with the goal of preventing unintentional spread allows us to catch many more cases that we never would have found way back in March. Due to the paucity of testing at that time, people were essentially only getting tested if they were being hospitalized. But there were, obviously, many, many more cases in the community that were either asymptomatic, mostly asymptomatic, or symptomatic but were being chalked up to a regular cold/flu. We have no direct data on how long it had been spreading here in the Northeast before we realized what was happening.
Indeed, if we look at Florida—a state whose primary wave took place in a totally different testing environment (which is much more similar to the current state of affairs than the situation was during our wave here in the Northeast 6 months ago), we see a long lag between the surge in cases and the rise in deaths. (I am using the website covidactnow.org for the following data.) As of this writing, the website reports a case load of 11.7/100,000/day in Ocean County. Florida crossed that threshold on June 19. Deaths, however, only began to rise in an alarming fashion around July 9 (in retrospect, a slight rise could be discerned in the several days before, but at the time it wouldn’t have looked like the beginning of the surge in deaths that it later turned out to be). Miami-Dade, which crossed that 11.7/100,000/day mark on June 13, only saw an appreciable rise in deaths beginning about a month later. I bring Florida and Miami-Dade county as examples only because I happen to be somewhat familiar with the situation there. (Unfortunately, the state didn’t publish coronavirus-specific hospitalization data before July 10.) It is a valuable example for us because it demonstrates that what the experts predicted then—a rise in deaths between one and two months after a sustained surge begins—was indeed accurate. Therefore, it is very possible that the apparent benign nature of this surge is simply due to the natural course of this virus.
There is no indication that it would be as bad now in Lakewood as it was then in Florida, just as there is now indication that it would be better. How exactly it will play out depends on Hashem’s decrees above and our actions below. The most important factor in disease spread, the reinfection rate/R-naught, is in our hands. Many people did already have it in Lakewood. There is reason to be hopeful (after all, I have no doubt that there are other states and regions with a similar case load to what Florida had at that time had very different outcomes). But there is no reason to believe the best will happen on its own. The fact that we haven’t seen a large surge in serious cases yet certainly does not mean it can’t or won’t be just as deadly now as it was at the around Pesach time.
I am not trying to be alarmist, and I don’t think that I am. I do, however, think that a look at the nature of COVID-19 tells us that we don’t have any solid reason to assume a good outcome is likely unless we use the means that we have available to make it so.
(TLS welcomes your letters by submitting them to letters@thelakewoodscoop.com)
who wrote this Megila ?
Well-written, informative. Thank you
please listen to medical experts
I did not read this lengthy letter, I stopped after the first few sentences where it stated that there has not been a surge in serious cases.
I’m not sure in what capacity you are associated with healthcare to know such information, but I can assure you that it is false.
I can name you people in the hospital. There have been people on home oxygen who have failed it who are now in the hospital. There are people who are confined to bed with over 10 days of fever, which is unfortunately an indicator of risk for serious illness and/or complications.
People have their head buried in the sand. Covid-19 is alive and kicking and we are all being stupid trying to ignore it and continue on as if it is not. We are all being stupid not quarantining when we are not feeling well, going to shul when we are sick assuming that if we “didn’t take a test I don’t know that I really have it and don’t need to stay home”.
No one is advocating a shutdown, just that people should be responsible, wear a mask so that if they are contagious and not yet showing symptoms they will not spread it, if you are having symptoms be responsible and get tested and quarantine as appropriate.
As it stands now there are many people who will be sick in bed on Yom Kippur, likely not fasting, unless there’s an open miracle..
Hashem Yishmor.
What about the fact that people who are higher risk are being careful, as oppose to the first time around when it caught everyone off guard?
Has anyone considered this and further are we being fair to those at risk that because we can not bother to be careful they need to hide out. In addition lets remember some high risk people have children that need to go to school and work and are really struggling in the current situation.
Lets be mindful of those people during these days and not go about our lives assuming this is nothing and the virus has become more mild.
That is a completely uneducated way of thinking that is harmful to society.
Parshandoso
Nice long article with misinformation. First off, there are probably a minimum of several hundred active most likely positive cases which intentionally aren’t getting tested and aren’t included in official numbers. Secondly, there are people in our community who needed to be intubated over the last few days. People need to take this seriously and wear masks..even if you already had it..if it becomes socially acceptable we can greatly reduce the transmission rate.
Great article. Keep masking and stay safe everyone!!
I’m baffled. A number of people who have recently had the virus in Lakewood told me the drs refused to give them any medication at all, let alone the Zelenko protocol. They were told the virus will pass on its own and that theres nothing to do.Two of them had to go back in after contracting pneumonia and literally beg for medicine. Why?
I’m told by a friend whos out of town older parents tested positive that they were immediately given the Zelenko protocol plus an effective vitamin regimen by the respected community physician and healed relatively quickly.
Why havent we learned from our mistakes the last time around?
I really dont get it. Are we standing by and watching and waiting for the cases to get serious?
It is NOT a magic cure. Speak to those who worked in NYC hospitals who had patients coming in on this protocol from early on that were just as sick as the others.
No one is denying that the majority of patients will get better within a few short days with NO TREATMENT AT ALL. As such, pointing to a few individuals who got better after taking this concoction is no more a proof, than say giving winkes to 300 people, and non dying, indicating winkes to be a cure.
Completely Untrue. There are MANY, MANY, MANY people who took Zelanko’s protocol with tremendous success. I have two close relatives (one of whom is elderly with underlying health issues) who were very ill from Covid and took Zelanko’s protocol and were almost completely cured within a few days. I know of many, many others.
If you care about your life and the life or your loved ones, look past the lies and misinformation and get this protocol and take it – if and when needed. (ideally with heart monitoring). (there are other medical options out there also – if you can get past the politics and get your hands on them.)
Miracle cure or not, studies by NYU and Henry Ford Hospitals showed that people given the protocal had 50% less of a chance of developing serious symptoms
Anyone sick with covid consider taking Quercetin and Zinc. Quercetin acts as a zinc ionophore which allows zinc into cells and thereby inhibit viral replication. Quercetin is also anti inflammatory and it can help reduce the cytokine response to the virus. These two are over the counter supplements so a doctors prescription isn’t necessary. I have gathered over 75 anecdotal cases of positive outcomes with these Supplements. A study in Turkey is soon to release results on their study with Quercetin for Covid. I was told that preliminary results were a success.
Whatever the author intended to convey in this waaaaay too long letter isn’t clear.
What is clear, however, is that the danger hasn’t subsided.
Israel is now forced to lock down until at least after Simchas Torah. Cases of infection and death are unfortunately spiking there. As long as people are still attending large weddings, minyanim, crowded mikvahs and other gatherings, it is mathematically impossible for Covid to disappear.
We all know the same things are going on in Lakewood, Boro Park, Monsey, and Williamsburg. Several unmasked events are occuring daily. Which Navi just gave a heter to be somaich on a miracle?!?
Wake up, folks! Ha-Shem Yirachem Aleynu.
It is NOT a magic cure. Speak to those who worked in NYC hospitals who had patients coming in on this protocol from early on that were just as sick as the others.
No one is denying that the majority of patients will get better within a few short days with NO TREATMENT AT ALL. As such, pointing to a few individuals who got better after taking this concoction is no more a proof, than say giving winkes to 300 people, and non dying, indicating winkes to be a cure.
My patients come in thinking they have the virus over a common cough. All this virus did is ruined businesses and tear families apart.
Stop believing politicians start using your brain. COVID is a common virus and when treated properly goes away.
Yes sir Dr. Rubin, I assume Lakewood Scoop medical school was hard to pass?
as i was told from a top epidemiologist we don’t know so your local doc like knows just as much as you glad he is your avodah zara
Sorry doc but there are hundreds of thousands who have lingering symptoms for months even from mild short cases. Dr Markowitz from Kimball has.a special ward to deal with these people and there is a national org. that deals with post covid 19 serious and mild recovered who have recurring symptoms.that keep coming back.although vivid 19 negative.
Not sure who invented this myth that the virus is not as severe this time around. Just listen to the Hatzolah radio for a few hours and you’ll get your head out of the sand really quick!
Finally a real true comment based on the real facts.
Do you have a link?
Yes. link up with your local Hatzolah member and ask him 0 IF he isn’t sick himself.
Thank you for sharing your perspective. Any implication that this round is not deadly is false.
Please daven for my friends מאיר נחום בן טעמא פריידא and for נפתלי מנחם בן יענדלה who are both critical condition with Covid and need רחמי שמים.
Saving lives is in our hands.
Let us be as “frum” about Covid and about the Mitzvah of ונשמרתם מאד לנפשותיכם, and about Pikuach Nefesh which overrides all except ע”ז, גילוי עריות ושפיכת דמים as we are about the rest of our lives -and more.
We can save lives – there is no בושה in wearing a mask and taking major precautions and only שכר מצוה and the satisfaction of knowing how every life saved is the most incredible chesed imaginable for the family of the person who won’t lose a father or mother or son or daughter.
As a Lakewood HCP, I can attest to “Just a guy”’s comments. COVID is very much alive and very very serious. There are many Lakewood people hospitalized, several on ventilators. If you haven’t been wearing a mask you may have caused one Or more of the hospitalizations. 40% of the people on ventilators die! Many many people in Lakewood have been extremely sick including over yom tov. This virus has not changed as evidenced by continuing deaths throughout the US and the rest of the world, and especially Israel. It is absolutely inexcusable to go in public without a mask-that includes Shuls, schools, Batei medrash and stores. What a chillul Hashem that the goyim are wearing masks in stores and the yidden are not! In Israel, you don’t leave your house without a mask and the children wore masks in school when it was open. That is the norm throughout the US too including all frum communities except Lakewood, Brooklyn and Monsey. It is also the law – Dina d’malchusa – in NJ! What a shanda! If you’re not wearing a mask you should klop some heavy duty Al Chets on Yom kippur because you’ve probably caused some of those illnesses.
Can someone explain why masks protect
I can demonstrate that it doesn’t
Israel has one of the world’s toughest enforcement policies regarding wearing masks. Israel has issued well over 50,000 fines to people for not wearing masks.
So you’d think that covid is well under control in Israel, right? They all wear masks which protects everyone?
Well guess what. The Israeli health system is on the verge of crumbling from covid, with thousands of new cases everyday in all sectors, 50,000+ active cases, almost 700 are seriously ill and nearly 200 on ventilators, and the country is on a three week lockdown and possibly longer
How is all that possible if masks protect and Israel has one of the strictest masking policies??????
BECAUSE MASKS DO NOT PREVENT COVID FROM SPREADING
50,000 fines sure sounds like there are plenty of people not wearing masks..
I’m glad somewhat glad this brought up the warped thinking of a (mutated) weaker strain. These People are using statistical data they believe they understand and analyzing the it same way. You don’t know the data and you don’t know how to analyze it. What we do know is a lot of people we have personally knows that have died from this. So to all that say it is a weaker strain, you are from the selfish ones who already had the virus and believe you are no longer at risk. Which is not even proven.
A weaker strain would sound like a mutation. Which would scare me even More because whatever we think we do know from past experiences might not apply. Using the expression “but no one is dying” sounds messed up. How do you know the statistics. How would you know how to even analyze it. Where is the data. I’d venture to say that the people saying it is a weaker strain would be those who have had it and have the (unproven) belief that they are immune.
Let’s even say no one is dying just for a very brief moment, are you ok with someone’s household being in quarantine because one family member is bedridden and only sick with 103 fever.
Can the scoop please reach out to Hatzolah and get a real report what is going on with covid in Lakewood? They have their finger on the pulse (litterally & figuratively) and can accurately report to the Lakewood public what is really going on and how severe it is now.
To the letter writer- Respectfully if you can’t even attach your name (or initials) to a letter with so many pieces of information that you want the public to digest, in my view the letter has no credibility..
I went to my doctor in Chemed last night. He said that that the virus is wide spread in Lakewood, people should be wearing masks outside and quarantine. Rabbi Avrohom Schorr was told by his doctor from Cornell hospital in NYC that the mortality rate for people over 60 years is 10%..
Alas! Someone with seichel.
As someone who has been dealing with covid for 6 weeks now I highly recommend that everyone look into covid19 and effects on the brain. Also, people who have had long term effects- months now. A bunch of people never go into the hospital because their breathing is manageable at home but they basically have symptoms of dementia along with extreme muscle aches and fatigue. There are also concern of stroke and seizure- this is not a just a flu. I’ve had the flu several times it never made mr confused or lose my short term memory or sense of smell.
Medical degrees are hard to come by
I assume yours is social media based?
…. of all these comments and articles. Get a life and don’t endanger others, even if there’s the slightest chance you will. And put helmets on your kids, I’m sick of that too. Forget about what’s written in these comments, worry about being inscribed in the Book of Life.
Folks, if you would read the whole letter you would see, that while he did start off by erroneously saying that there are not so many serious cases right now, his point of this article was to warn the public that it looks like things can chas v’shalom! get way worse.
And that we can be hopeful that this time it will be better – only if we do something to prevent the rapid spread we had last time.
So don’t jump down his throat till you read the whole letter!
Another condescending letter assuming that all people who are not stringent Wearing masks are obviously misinformed, hence the long meggilla restating the obvious. The issue at hand is not whether the viruses is deadly or if it’s around and about,rather how to deal with it. With letters from the medical community which were completely detached from reality, just to refresh, ideas like leaving food outside for 3 days, taking off shoes and leaving them outside, A open ended shut down with no game plan of when to reopen And no consideration for physical emotional or mental needs of human beings Have people questioning the medical advice.The Underlying assumption is that we can do something about it And that is far from a sure thing
. Just take Israel for example they are doing a lot more, Much more stringent quarrantining and shut down and they are getting nowhere very fast it is Completely possible that due to the fact that it is so contagious all what we tried to do will in the long run not help much, And if we do complete quarrantining We only can do it temporarily and as soon as we lift the quarantine The virus starts running again. Perhaps a limited shut down for people who are vulnerable, By now we know people under 30 by and large not going to get a severe case of it Can live freely for example. Instead of promoting a radical agenda a bit of balance and prudence would go in long way
There have unfortunately been at least 7 new hospitalizations in Lakewood.
To all people that trust your doctors, please listen to them and wear a mask. Not just in the store, also in shul. If you believe your frum yirei shomayim doctor is saying the truth, then it follows that it is the ratzon Hashem to guard your health and the health of others. Peer pressure is a tough thing to go against but the ratzon Hashem should defiantly win versus peer pressure.
According to a report in today’s Star Ledger (NJ.com) Ocean and Gloucester counties if states would be subject to NJ 14 day travel ban, and Ocean County leads the state in terms of cases per 100,000 residents. Please do not pretend Covid-19 does not exist or it is “Covid light”, or it only exists in Toms River or Seaside.. #16 and #17 are 100% correct. We must be “frum” in the mitsvah of “v’nishmartem m’od”.
Hashem should guard over all of us and “maneh magefah m’nachalasecha”
I personally know 4 Lakewood residents that were hospitalized in the last 18 hours, 3 of them are under 40 and otherwise healthy. And I don’t know a fraction of Lakewood.
This op-ed is terrible timing and should be retracted (not deleted) by the author.
There is way too much fear out there.
If you are older than 60 and you think you want to wear a properly fitted N95 mask then go ahead otherwise.
Anyone under 60 with no serious health conditions and fears this Virus might as well not drive a car or even go as a passenger in a car bus or plane because of the likelihood of accidents.
check out alex berenson to see numbers in perspective
and the cdc website on how and what masks work