JUST IN: New Poll Finds Governor Murphy with 11-Point Lead Over Jack Ciattarelli

A new poll from Monmouth University is making Democrats breathe a sigh of relief. While the race for governor in New Jersey has tightened considerably over the past few months, the new poll finds Governor Murphy with a 50% to 39% lead over Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli.

While the poll shows consistently declining support for the governor – he led by 16 points in August, and 13 points in September – it still shows a relatively comfortable lead for the Democratic incumbent with less than a week to go before the election.

The poll also found that a top issue for voters is taxes, an area in which Ciattarelli has a decided advantage. However, Murphy is more trusted by New Jersey voters across a wider range of policy areas, including in his handling of Covid-19 and on education.

While support for Governor Murphy among various demographics is generally in line with where they were a month ago, the poll did find a significant decline in support for Murphy among seniors. In September, 53% seniors supported Murphy while 37% opposed him, whereas the new poll found that support among that demographic has dropped to 48%, compared to 43% who oppose the governor.

Murphy continues to hold a large advantage among black voters (83% to 6%), as well as Latinos, Asians, and other voters of color (63% to 22%). He also has a small lead with white college graduates (49% to 43%), but trails Ciattarelli among white voters without a bachelor’s degree (35% to 55%).

“We’ve had a couple of debates and a slew of advertising since the last Monmouth poll. Ciattarelli has chipped away at Murphy’s lead but hasn’t delivered the knockout he needs,” said Monmouth University’s polling director Patrick Murray.

At this point, Murray says that Ciattarelli would not only lead a large Republican turnout to win, he would also require a “collapse of Democratic turnout.”

The Monmouth poll also found that President Joe Biden’s job performance rating in New Jersey is now underwater – 43% approve of his job performance, while 49% disapprove of it. Prior polls found that Biden was viewed positively overall in the Garden State, with 55% approving of his job performance in May, and 51% approving in August.

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19 COMMENTS

  1. GOOD JOB MURPHY FANS OUT THERE!! Good job on trying to play with pples minds.
    BUT- facts are- the difference is a single digit. Closer than it was 2 days ago. And no, i will not post evidence.
    I live in Manalapan. I belong to a very nice Orthodox jewish community here.. And it BLOWS our minds away, how FRUM LAKEWOOD ORTHODOX JEWS, which i gotta say we came to respect highly over the years, (and actually contributed to some large charity organizations) can steep so low. And endorse, vote, and run after someone for $$. WHERE ARE YOUR TRUE TORAH SCHOLARS AND RABBIS????
    Are they doing G-ds will with voting for Murphy??? Or are they playing some political game. What a shame.

    • @Laura how dare you speak badly of our Rabbis. Just because you don’t understand them, doesn’t mean you should degrade them. See Davrim 17:11 and Rashi there about how you must listen to the Rabbis even if you don’t understand there instructions. It is shameful that you consider our Roshei Yeshiva as not true Torah Scholars.

    • @ Laura, NO evidence of the only single-digit lead, NO evidence about Lakewood populations vote either. Take a deep breath and stop deciding where lakewood will vote before it even happens. BTW did you see the results of the TLS poll (which IS evidence of Lakewood)??? 80% to Ciattarelli. you can start being proud of your Jewish religion again.

    • Laura – Can you back up your words? Where does the Torah say you may not vote for someone for the purpose of money? Why is money is a bad thing? Money means Yeshivos and Kollelim. Money means schools and housing. Money means streets and services. Why is money a bad thing?
      And where does the Torah tell us that Murphy cannot be a Governor? Hashem appointed all kinds of kings and dukes throughout history, many of them a lot worse than Murphy.

      Torah does not mean ‘whatever my feelings prefer’. If you want to quote Torah, quote Torah. Show us, chapter and verse, why we should not vote for Murphy. Abortion and LGBT rights are not on the ballot now, and both candidates are just as bad on both topics.

  2. A friend of mine told me he never looks at poll numbers because he thinks it’s a “pointless exercise”. I told him that he’s wrong, and that the point of looking at poll numbers is to see by how many points one candidate is leading the other. He asked me, “what’s the point in that?”. I told him that this might give someone the extra push to go out and vote. He said, “or it might give someone an excuse to stay home and not vote, if someone’s candidate of choice is up in the polls.” I told him, “good point.” He then pointed to a car and said, “I have to run now because my ride is here, and I have to get from point A to point B in 5 minutes. If I don’t make it there in time, I lose 10 points.

  3. Somehow this doesn’t track. The poll last week had a 6 point lead over Jack. I would like to see the sample size in the poll. Did they over sample more Democrats so it looks better for Murphey?

  4. this poll actually has a sample size larger then all the polls to date. This poll sampled 1,000 registered voters whereas the Emerson poll from last week which had murphy up 6 had a sample size of 600 voters. The Stockton poll from last month which had murphy up by 9 points only had 552 voter sample size.

  5. All the subcategories seem to show the Ciatterelli is doing far better than they show.
    Early voters have been more than 80 percent White – a number that bodes poorly for Murphy, whose most staunch supporters are in the demographic of Black voters.
    Ciatterelli has increased in support in seniors – and more than 70 percent of early voters are over the age of 50.
    Murphy’s strong point in polls was his handling of Covid, but that category is now the 4th most cared about category, down from number 1.
    I’m not suggesting that the Monmouth poll is off by 11 points, but something doesn’t add up, and I think the race is a lot closer than they assert.

  6. All the subcategories seem to show the Ciatterelli is doing far better than they show.
    Early voters have been more than 80 percent White – a number that bodes poorly for Murphy, whose most staunch supporters are in the demographic of Black voters.
    Ciatterelli has increased in support in seniors – and more than 70 percent of early voters are over the age of 50.
    Murphy’s strong point in polls was his handling of Covid, but that category is now the 4th most cared about category, down from number 1.
    I’m not suggesting that the Monmouth poll is off by 11 points, but something doesn’t add up, and I think the race is a lot closer than they suggest

  7. Vote Murphy out of office. Reminder plastic bag ban signed by Murphy goes into effect in March, that means no more plastic bags to bring home your groceries because the democrats believe that they can control the weather by banning plastic and making our lives harder. As a lame duck Murphy will only get worse.

  8. this is called a suppression poll! they do this so that the side that lower will say its not worth it to go out and vote! dont believe any of these polls for anything because i believe that jack is way closer then 6 points if not more then murphy. People are standing and realizing that the higher ups in Lakewood are looking for money. or they are hoping to get on murphys side. this wont help in the least bit. (im not talking about roshei yeshiva) it will do no good for our community which will fall apart if murphy is reelected.
    forget about this poll or any poll for that matter and go vote for jack or your liberties are in jeopardy. and I’m not kidding!!!

  9. If Monmouth says its an 11 point lead that means its a dead heat.
    These polls are always skewed towards the left.
    I dont believe its accuracy for a second.
    We must get out the vote and vote for Jack.

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