Did Polling Cause This Mess For Trump? | Shlomo Rudman

There are mountains of allegations claiming that Joe Biden’s declared win in the presidential election is fraudulent. From odd ballot numbers to poll watchers saying they personally saw evidence of fraud and mishandling of ballots, the Trump campaign has enough evidence to mount a challenge to the reported results in court.

But let’s assume for a moment that all will remain as is and Joe Biden is confirmed as the President-elect of the United States. There is another major issue that the entire political sphere must contend with. The problem? Polling.

Throughout the entire presidential campaign, every major poll had Joe Biden leading President Trump by a very wide margin. Most national polls had Biden with a 10% lead in the popular vote. Most battleground-state polls had Biden with smaller leads than the national polls, but even battleground polls had Biden absolutely crushing Trump. In certain states, the Biden lead margin was even larger than national polling showed.

Why does this matter? There are two reasons. One, because polling doesn’t just survey voter’s opinions – it shapes them. When you see that 85% of people think a certain way, it has a psychological effect on you. We always want to be right, and we want to be a part of the ‘correct’ group. And if 85% of people think a certain way, we are more likely to think that way as well. Two, political polls showing one candidate way ahead of another can dissuade some voters from casting a ballot. Why bother when the outcome is already etched in stone?

Let’s look at the state of Wisconsin as an example of this. The last ABC/Washington Post poll before the election had Joe Biden leading President Trump in the state by a staggering 17%. What was the final margin in the state? Less than 0.5%, close enough for a recount to be requested by the Trump campaign. Is it not plausible that some Trump voters in Wisconsin decided to stay home because they saw the poll showing Biden way ahead and believed there was no chance for President Trump to win the state? I think it is. And imagine if those voters had gone to the polls – this entire election could have resulted in a completely different result.

The lesson from here isn’t just that you should ignore the polls – it’s that public polling on political issues shouldn’t exist at all. They blew it in 2016, they blew it even worse in 2020; when is it enough? We don’t need or want pollsters deciding elections. The public doesn’t need to know which candidate is leading where. Candidates themselves will have internal polls that show them where they need to focus their energy. But enough with these garbage pollsters feeding us their trash. It’s not helpful. And it just may have cost President Trump a second term in the White House.

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15 COMMENTS

  1. Trump is crying foul, claiming they have evidence.
    3 poll watchers complaining aint enough.
    let see the evidence, then I’ll gladly go along.

    • Four 4 years trump has been lying about his poll numbers. Trump called the polls suppression polls because that is what he would do when he would tweet his poll numbers. Five million people more people voted for Biden over trump. If not for the defunding the police and protests turning into riots the democrats would have done better in the local elections. Vote for Biden was more a vote against Trump and his lawlessness. There are people that put country first over their personal desires. What is going on now at the Pentagon should worry all of you.

  2. Yes, this person is undermining the faith we have in our institutions, as if he were Robert Mugabe in Africa, but the greater danger is real, as our nation is strong and can survive a president like Trump. Remember, it took 100 years since the Gracci in 125 bce for the Roman Republic to collapse, with the controversy of granting the vote to citizens of Italy outside Rome, expanding the Senate etc., the polarization of the Roman electorate resulting in the temporary dictatorships of Marius and then Sulla, before a man like Caesar, putting his own interests above their constitution, collapsed the republic. We are not there yet.

    The danger is that Trump may, and probably will, reveal classified information as a private citizen. He has all the hallmarks of a security risk, huge debt, anger against the US government, and many friends among our enemies. He already reveal a lot, probably inadvertently, but there is nothing you can do against a sitting president.

    The good news is that he never had a good understanding of intelligence. Still, he does possess bits and pieces that if he were to blurt them out in private or in public, as he so often runs his mouth, he can put the nation at risk.

  3. Trump and Repulican legislatures did not allow votes to be counted prior to election dayin states that were close. Florida allowed votes to be counted before election day because of its awful history. Trump wanted the evening to appear like he was winning so that when they started counting after election day it would appear “rigged”. No fraud. The lawyers in court today had to admit they had no evidence of fraud. Google it you can see the transcripts. 0- 12 is the record for their lawsuits. Biden crossed over to 5,000,000 more popular votes. The 10,000 votes that are in question in Florida have not been counted and if they were Biden’s victory in PA WOULD NOT BE AFFECTED. TRUMP IS NOT A VICTIM. He is a crook. A grifter. And a loser. Yes a loser, let him deal with it like you would like your children to deal with failures,

  4. Why does the liberal left own all the media (they even bought Fox)? There are plenty of wealthy republicans and conservatives. Why don;t they buy up some media companies?

    • Maybe your question will clue you in to the answer. Perhaps the media isn’t owned by the liberal left at all. Perhaps the answer lies somewhere else.

      What is the ‘media’? Media means a method, it doesn’t imply anything cohesive. The news media is a group of people who are trained to find out facts and to follow stories to their sources. Reporters and investigators are people who know better than some of us how to find out facts. Why is it that reporters and journalists, people who get to know more facts, are more likely to be liberal? Does that not tell you something about liberalism? If liberalism is closer to facts than conservatism, that should be a signpost to all who are looking for the truth.

  5. What nonsense? First of all, there is the First Amendment. You cannot stop the press from conducting and announcing polls. Secondly, we had the largest turnout ever. Trump turned out his based in a greater amount than expected. So if the polls did anything, and they did nothing, they helped him. I do not see how polls influence the vote. If so, then no one in Lakewood would have voted for Biden as so many were embarrassed to express their opinion. We have the Australian ballot in America, secret ballot, so you would have to convince me that there is a bandwagon effect. If anything, the bandwagon effects the polls, but not the secret ballot on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November.

  6. I voted for Trump because I don’t want a Democrat as president. There were people who voted for Biden because they didn’t want Trump not because they especially liked Biden. I don’t listen to polls, I make up my own mind and I’m sure others do too.

  7. The polls may have helped Trump by making his followers go out and vote. Secondly, regarding fraud, when the Trump attorney was asked by the Judge if he sees fraud the attorney could not lie and said not at this time. Ben Ginsburg, the Republican election lawyer that represented George W Bush in Florida has written to op-ed pieces against the false claims of the Trump camp. I would suggest you all read it and you might want to stop getting majority of your news from, FOX, Newsmax, OANN, Breitbart, Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh, Alex jones etc…

  8. Polling has an opposite effect as well – if a candidate leads significantly in the polls, people are more likely to assume that the candidate doesn’t need their vote and don’t bother voting. There’s a field of study called “game theory” which tries to predict likelihood of a population’s behavior based on perception of others’ behavior. I wonder what the Game Theorists would say about this.

  9. Isn’t Democratic fraud so interesting, allowing for multiple GOP congressional and senatorial wins over Democrats but at the same time giving needed Biden votes as well…Fraud or Republicans who were sick Trumpsim….

Comments are closed.