The race for New Jersey governor is tightening with less than two weeks until Election Day, as a new poll released today shows Democrat Mikie Sherrill holding a narrow lead over Republican Jack Ciattarelli.

The Rutgers-Eagleton Poll of 795 likely voters found Sherrill ahead 50% to 45%, with 3% preferring another candidate and 2% undecided. However, the five-point margin is within the poll’s plus or minus 4.7 percentage point margin of error, suggesting a statistical tie.

“As all eyes turn to New Jersey’s governor’s race as a test of the nation’s political mood, the contest has narrowed in its final weeks,” said Ashley Koning, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling. “The outcome will ultimately hinge on turnout, especially in an off-year election with a smaller and less predictable electorate.”

And in a recent development, as TLS first reported earlier this week, Ciattarelli is expected to receive the endorsement of the Lakewood Vaad, and with the race within the margin of error, the support of Lakewood’s nearly 65,000 registered voters could prove decisive.

In 2021, Ciattarelli lost a closer than expected race to the term-limited Governor Phil Murphy, losing by just 3.2%, or 84,286 votes statewide. Prior to election day in 2021, most polls had Ciattarelli losing by an average of eight points.

And in that election, Ciattarelli, who was not endorsed by the Vaad, received just over 60% of the Lakewood vote, but now is expected to vastly outperform those numbers, with some analysists expecting totals close to what Trump received in what was his best performance in the state.

Both candidates have solidified their party bases — 95% of Democrats back Sherrill, and 94% of Republicans support Ciattarelli. Among independents, Sherrill leads 49% to 40%. The poll also shows a significant gender gap, with women 18 points more likely to back Sherrill and men favoring Ciattarelli.

Former President Donald Trump continues to loom large over the race. A majority of voters, 52%, say Trump is a “major factor” in their decision, including 78% of Democrats, 38% of Republicans and 42% of independents.

Voters are divided on key issues. Sherrill leads on education (47%–40%) and health care (50%–35%), while Ciattarelli holds an edge on taxes (44%–37%), government spending (45%–39%) and crime (49%–35%).

The poll was conducted Oct. 3–17 through live calls and text messages. With Election Day on Nov. 4, both campaigns are focused on mobilizing supporters in what is shaping up to be one of New Jersey’s closest gubernatorial contests in recent history.

As usual, TLS will have full election night coverage of all relevant state and local races after the polls close.