Continuing Primary Coverage: By Aaron Joseph. This is just a pre-New Hampshire jaunt. In the crosshairs is Mr. Romney. Mitt is the man to beat. Whether by talking the talk, or paying the pay, Mr. Romney, after four consecutive years of careful positioning, and excessive, aggressive campaigning, has a commanding lead in the New Hampshire Republican primary polls. His shrinking yet overwhelmingly viable New Hampshire poll numbers before Shabbos is a robust 41%. That is double his nearest opponent Ron Paul, who is at 18%
Third of the top three contenders, Rick Santorum was polling at roughly 10% before Shabbos. As mentioned in a piece last week, Mitt Romney has all to lose, and Rick Santorum has all to gain. Admittedly, it is always like that when a front-runner is challenged. Yet in essence, before, and behind the poll numbers, who really is the Republican favorite?
Ron Paul, with his nonconformist stances on a whole wide ranging slew of positions has a following. Yet, it is a following of that reformist conservative type, nonconformists that need or would like to have their voices and unusual thinking portrayed to the public. As serious as the Ron Paul publicity and money is today, it is about the same it has been for him in the past. A true negativity is the vehement anti-Semitic, anti-Israel statements attributed to him of recent, which casts his as a lonely radical in this sphere, or perhaps extremely misread and misinformed. Except for the ever real potential, or threat, of Ron Paul siphoning votes from Rick Santorum’s momentum, my prediction for the end of Mr. Paul is- fighting for his political life in his next term for reelection to congress. For the sake of the rest of this article, Ron Paul will be sidelined from the following lines.
Rick Santorum is a true balanced conservative with an exceptionally robust record and highly transparent and ethically sound public career. He is well educated, blue collared, mind you, and homegrown from authentic coalmining roots. He knows the core engine of factory manufacturing America firsthand, having been born into such a family himself. Rick can and does connect exceptionally well with the everyday American. On the eve of the Iowa caucus, upon coming within just 8 votes of winning, his campaign received over $1,000,000 in unsolicited donations.
In fact, since Iowa, just a few days gone bye, his poll numbers have spiked noticeably higher. True at this point of time January 5th, 7:00pm, his New Hampshire poll numbers are at only 10%. However, where are they now, at the time and date when you read this? That is an indicator of just how well he connects.
The difference between a front-runner, and a party favorite, even to the common man- you and I as well, and those who can read between some of the usual political lines, is the money. Obviously, if a candidate can afford to do so, his name and face, and some catchy phrase will be hung out on every street sign. He will pay good hard cash to highly gloss himself all over the internet and mass media, and then self proclaim just how renowned he is. Of course without mentioning that it was he and his well paid for political machine that created the image to begin woth. Yet who is behind the man?
This Romney pay-it-all tactic was first used effectively by the son of one of America’s most wealthy and well known political families during the 1950’s. John F. Kennedy, (however history may have enshrined his name and image in a carefully romanticized “Camelot” sensation), spent four years working the primary route before his successful 1960 campaign. In fact, of historical importance, John F. Kennedy was the first presidential contender to ever work the full primary root. Before the election of 1960, no candidate ever worried about caucuses or primaries. Party bosses of that age controlled the nomination process. John Kennedy dead-ended around the Democratic party bosses, alienating whoever his father’s money could not buy back into his fold. Kennedy’s tactics were so lucid and for his day, original, it completely caught even the seasoned politicians off guard. In fact, it first dawned on Lyndon B. Johnson that he was not going to be appointed his party’s candidate for 1960- only during the Democratic National Convention in L.A. Reason being- young John Kennedy had already sown up the needed delegates by actively campaigning and winning his party’s primaries months in advance. Johnson went on to be Kennedy’s 1960 running mate.
When John Kennedy reacted in response to the allegations that his father was financing his entire campaign and in fact buying votes for his son outright, this is what young John Kennedy had to say about it. Pulling out a fake telegram from his father, John Kennedy cleared his voice and humorlessly stated: “Dear Jack,” he began to read, “don’t you dare buy one vote more then necessary, I’ll be da—ed if I pay for a landslide!”
A terrific sense of humor Kennedy surely had, however, time in the Whitehouse to prove himself- that he didn’t have. Yet for all that he was worth, history has a descent memory of John F. Kennedy. Yet Mr. Romney? His tactics have been well used on and off again over the last half century. Official government representation benefits greatly from a man of good humor. But the general voting public has begun to see through the huge fortunes political figures such as Mr. Romney are paying in fistfuls to promote themselves. This has begun to draw a huge underlining negativity and in fact resentment in an economic downturn, and is a dangerous and ferocious silent majority that Mr. Romney is facing. In fact, it is this very generic wealth gloss that has thus far inhibited Mr. Romney from pulling away from the pack. As some realism must be detected by voters, and thus far, all their sub-consciousness is detecting is the expense of the Romney campaign. Consciously, most voters are beginning to recognize a wind of sincerity prevailing from Rick Santorum.
Rick Santorum on the other hand has virtually tied the “frontrunner” and comes across as the genial, wholesome, diplomatic underdog who has earned all he is promoting, through serious hard work and personal effort. After all, this is a man who traversed the entirety of Iowa for many weeks in nothing but a supporter’s pickup truck. No coach busses, no entourage, no press busses trailing. Santorum is the stuff legends are created from.
Here is a man who addresses issues off the cuff, does not sound like he is prepped and timed for the sound byte, has a full command and deep understanding of a whole range of issues, and does not drip with coyness in every video clip. This is “like a guy next door American”, who has worked hard to earn this spot on the election history channel. This represents a champion if not favorite of the average middle-class religious conservative.
So while the self-promotion of the Romney camp may yet buy him his victory in New Hampshire, and may yet allow Mr. Romney to tote the historical fact that he was the first Republican candidate in U.S. history to win Iowa and New Hampshire, this attention will begin to backfire as the light of recognition for Mr. Santorum and what he represents begins to cast a shadow upon the self promoted, expensive Romney camp.
As Rick Santorum’s supporters begin to overtake Mr. Romney’s expensive show, the Santorum favoritism momentum that nearly toppled Mr. Romney as frontrunner in Iowa will surely assist the Santorum organization in the upcoming primary states. As cash is the ultimate factor however, each poll number higher Mr. Santorum closes in on Mr. Romney, is the extra dollar donated to the Santorum campaign, and an additional counter dollar the Romney’s must pay out to beat Santorum. Eventually, as is the obvious opinion of this author at this time, the party favorite will triumph, and ultimately morph into the party frontrunner as well. Time, as New Hampshire, will surely tell and be the decisive indicator.
Hey, what happened to the Gitelis article about Romney being a liberal?
Brilliant, well thought out article.
I agree with the sentiment that money is the decisive factor. This is true and the worst part of American politics.
A previous article on the scoop also mentioned a solid point. Romney is the most liberal republican and the media likes that giving him the most positive attention.
I agree that if Santorum can hang in there he will persevere.
You dont mention that Romney is the heavy favorite in New Hampshire, that he owns a house in the state, spends more time in the state then any other candidate in primary history, and was the governor of the neighboring state.
For all these reasons alone Romeny will win here. Probably by a big margin.
Therefore, New Hampshire cannot be an indicator of how well Romney is doing. that is why he and all the other candidates are so concerned about south carolina’s primary which will be the first REAL contest.
And I worry about Ron Paul. As much as you would like to write him off, his support is growing AND SUSTAINED. (That means that unlike the other Republican candidates who rise and fall in the polls, Ron Paul is the only one who rises slowly, and doesn’t fall.)
What I am guessing is that as people slowly stop and listen to Ron Paul’s message, they will agree with him. Because most of America agrees with most of his policies.
And that worries me.
The conservative base of the Republican party doesn’t want Romney. They would rather another conservative, but they have yet to agree on which one. If they are given the choice between Romney and only one other conservative (like Santorum or Gingrich), they will choose the other one. I just hope that the choice doesn’t boil down to Romney-Paul.
Because I am concerned that the conservative base of the Republican party will choose Paul over Romney, if that is the choice.
We need to daven hard that either Santorum or Gingrich or Perry gain the momentum in the primaries, beginning in South Carolina, where the true race begins.
I remember when Barack Obama joined the race for President in 2007, nobody, and I repeat NOBODY, thought he would win.
I am concerned that Ron Paul may win, despite Mr. Joseph not wanting to face this reality.
Reb Yid,
Don’t worry. Mr. Joseph is right, the conservative base and majority of the republican party does not and would not vote for a radical. Paul spent nearly the whole year focused on New Hampshire. He isnt first. He is hoping for momentum. Look around at other state polls. He is were he always stood.
I disagree with Joseph regarding Paul’s nex congress election. This publicity cant hurt him at home.