Almost 2.8 million New Jersey residents will travel 50 miles or more away from home for the holidays, up 1.7% over last year, and the second highest on record, AAA estimates. The year-end holiday travel period is defined as the 13-day period from December 20, 2025 to January 1, 2026.  Nationally, AAA estimates that almost 122.4 million people will journey 50 miles or more away from home, an increase of 2.2% over last year, setting a new record of holiday travelers.

“This year-end holiday forecast, with a 1.7% increase in New Jersey travelers, mirrors what AAA Travel has been observing throughout 2025,” said Tracy Noble, spokesperson for AAA Club Alliance. “Despite the cost, more people are investing in travel to make memories with loved ones and celebrate the holidays.”

Almost 2.5 million (90%) of New Jersey residents will drive to their holiday destinations an increase of 1.3% compared to those who drove last year.  “Many travelers, particularly families with young children, prefer the flexibility and lower cost that road trips provide,” said Noble.  Drivers across New Jersey are paying about $2.92 per gallon for gas, which is relatively the same as this time last year.

Nationally, AAA projects 109.5 million Americans will travel by car for their year-end trips, an increase of 2% compared to last year. This year, 89% of holiday travelers will take road trips. Gas prices are lower compared to last holiday season when the national average was $3.04 to end 2024. “For the first time in four years, the national average dropped below $3 a gallon this month, and prices could continue dropping as 2025 comes to a close,” Noble said.

Air Travel

Air travel in New Jersey will see an increase of 1.9% over last year, with over 193,000 expected to fly to their holiday destination.  According to AAA data, which is based on what travelers paid when they booked their holiday trips, a roundtrip domestic flight is 7% more expensive this year, averaging nearly $900 a ticket.

Nationally, AAA projects a record 8.03 million travelers taking domestic flights this holiday season, a 2.3% increase compared to last year. This will be the first time on record that the number of domestic air travelers over the year-end holiday period exceeds 8 million.

Bus, Train, Other Modes of Transportation

Other modes of transportation are seeing the biggest increase for the year-end holidays in New Jersey, up 11.5% compared to last year.  Over 97,000 New Jersey travelers will be going by bus, cruise or train this year. Nationally, the number of Americans traveling by bus, train, and cruise this holiday season is up 9.1% compared to last year. AAA expects 4.9million people to travel by other modes, the highest it’s been in 20 years. This category has seen a 25% increase since 2019, mainly due to the record-setting demand for cruises post-pandemic.

Best & Worst Times to Travel by Car

INRIX, a provider of transportation data and insights, expects Christmas week to be busier on the roads than New Year’s week, but both weeks will see days of increased traffic. Interstates will be extra congested the weekend before Christmas, as travelers hit the road on Saturday and Sunday ahead of the holiday. Friday, December 26 is also expected to be busy as travelers make moves post-Christmas Day. Because the year-end holiday travel period spans a longer time frame, travelers have more options for departures and returns. The holidays themselves – Christmas and New Year’s Day – are typically the lightest traffic-wise but remember crashes or severe weather could create unexpected delays.

Holiday Forecast Methodology  

In cooperation with AAA, S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI) developed a unique methodology to forecast actual domestic travel volumes. The economic variables used to forecast travel for the current holiday are leveraged from SPGMI’s proprietary databases. These data include macroeconomic drivers such as employment, output, household net worth, asset prices including stock indices, interest rates, housing market indicators, and variables related to travel and tourism, including gasoline prices, airline travel, and hotel stays. AAA and SPGMI have quantified holiday travel volumes going back to 2000.

Historical travel volume estimates come from MMGY’s TRAVEL PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM. The PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM is a comprehensive study measuring the travel behavior of U.S. residents. MMGY contacts over 50,000 U.S. households each month to obtain detailed travel data, resulting in the unique ability to estimate visitor volume and spending, identify trends, and forecast U.S. travel behavior, all after the trips have been taken.

The travel forecast is reported in person-trips. In particular, AAA and SPGMI forecast the total U.S. holiday travel volume and expected mode of transportation. The travel forecast presented in this report was finalized the week of November 17, 2025.

Because AAA holiday forecasts focus on domestic leisure travel only, comparisons to TSA passenger screening numbers should not be made. TSA data includes all passengers traveling on both domestic and international routes, whether traveling for work or leisure. Additionally, TSA screens passengers each time they enter secured areas of the airport, therefore each one-way trip is counted as a passenger tally. AAA focuses on person-trips, which include the full round-trip travel itinerary. As a result, direct comparisons of AAA forecast volumes and daily TSA screenings represent different factors.